Spotlight is on Johnny Cueto

Johnny Cueto will be a topic of discussion for a long time and I want to provide the full story on Cueto. As we all know he was traded, along with Huff, by Korn to Lotocki for Roy Oswalt. So far Cueto has scored 63 Rotowire points, Oswalt has produced 71 points, and Huff is leading the pack with 105 points. Funny how the throw-in guy is leading the way, just like I predict that Jurrjens will be in the Beltran/McCann deal.

Johnny Cueto is a 22 year old RHP who was born on February 15, 1986 in San Pedro de Macoris, DR. He is listed at 5'10 and 183 LBS, but I have seen him pitch multiple times this season and he is probably closer to 5'8 then he is to 5'10.

So far this season Cueto stats look like this:
W: 2
L: 4
IP: 45.7
K: 46
BB: 11
ERA: 5.91
WHIP: 1.25
K/P: 9.1
K/BB: 4.2

Cueto has a very impressive K:BB ratio at 4.2 and his WHIP is manageable at 1.25. So the problem isn't throwing strikes but the strikes that he does throw are getting hit out of the yard (1.8 HR/9). He is much better out of the wind up then he is from the stretch as only 56% of the runners put on base by him are stranded. That is really low and that % should normalize closer to 70% for the season. That could bring a major improvement to his ERA, which is needed as the 5.91 ERA will not get you many W's. Righties are hitting .252 and lefties are hitting .275 against Cueto this season.

In a previous post (Jurrjens & Wang) I discussed the importance in keeping the ball out of the air as a pitcher. Cueto has allowed 46% of the balls hit against him to go into the air. This is a direct correlation to his high ERA. Keeping balls on the ground in even more important for him as he is playing in the band box called Great American Ballpark. The cautionary tale here is Cueto has performed much better at home then on the road with a 3.67 ERA at home and a 9.16 on the road. If he keeps allowing so many FBs at home his ERA will continue to suffer. He also likes day games 5.40 ERA vs night games 7.07 ERA

A very interesting fact was posted during the Reds/Mets game yesterday that Cueto has 35 swing and misses in his first 2 starts but only had 40 in his next 5 starts. Hitters are going to adjust more and more as they gain film and advanced scouting reports on his pitching.

Dusty Baker seems to be more carful with Cueto then he has with Volquez. Cueto has thrown a total of 729 pitches in 8 games, with only (1) 100+ pitch game, for an average of 91.1 pitches per outing while Volquez has thrown 5 straight 100+pitch games while throwing 709 pitches in 7 outing yielding an average of 101.2 pitches per game. Dusty even brought Volquez back into the game, during his last start, after 94 pitches and a 9 run lead after 6 innings. He finished the game with a carrer high of 118 pitches. I wanted to shove that toothpick right down Dusty's fat ass throat when I was watching the game. Cueto and Volquez (they played on the same team) both have logged innings in Winter Ball before the season. Cueto threw over 30 innings and went 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA. The DR Winter League could be the best baseball outside MLB. Those 30+ innings have to be accounted for when the Reds look at shutting him down, as they will becuase they will 45 games out of the wildcard. This is where Cueto has teamed up with Mario Soto, famed for having one of the best change-up ever. It seems like everytime Cueto had trouble they would bring up Soto from DR. Why not keep his ass up in Cincy for the whole year to work with Cueto and Volquez?

Cueto came into the season ranked as the #47 ranked prospect in baseball and #3 in the Reds orgainization behind Bruce and Homer. Before this season Cueto has only piched at total of 83 IP above A ball (Sarasota). Below is a breakdown of his career ML stats:
W: 14
L: 12
IP: 348.1
K: 357
BB: 82
ERA: 3.28
WHIP: 1.1o

After looking at these numbers you can undrerstand why he flew through the Reds organization at such an early age. He has a 170:34 K:BB ratio last season alone in the ML!

FINAL THOUGHTS
I think he has the stuff to remain in the roation this season and eventually the #2, behind Volquez. He needs to trust his stuff more and pound the strike zone with his fastball. His slider is the pitch that is getting hit out of the yard. I think the coaching staff that calls the pitches are dopes and Cueto needs to learn to shake his head left to right and throw his damn heater at anyime in the count. The best days are in the future for him and his owner.