Mock Draft

Below is a Mock Draft on the 2009 June MLB Amatuer Draft.

1. Nationals -- RHP Stephen Strasburg, San Diego State
2. Mariners -- RHP Jacob Turner, Westminster Christian Academy
3. Padres --1B Dustin Ackley, University of North Carolina
4. Pirates -- RHP Alex White, University of North Carolina
5. Orioles -- LHP Tyler Matzek, Capastrano Valley HS
6. Giants -- RHP Tanner Scheppers, St. Paul Saints
7. Braves -- OF Donavan Tate, Cartersville HS
8. Reds -- RHP Kyle Gibson, University of Missouri
9. Tigers -- RHP Shelby Miller, Brownwood HS
10. Nationals -- RHP Matthew Purke, Klein HS
11. Rockies -- 1B Rich Poythress, University of Georgia
12. Royals -- RHP Aaron Crow, Fort Worth Cats
13. Athletics -- SS Grant Green, University of South Carolina
14. Rangers -- RHP Zach Wheeler, East Paulding Co. HS
15. Indians -- RHP Mike Leake, Arizona State University

Grant Green going #13 is a huge drop off for him as he was the favorite to follow Strasburg when the season began. 11 of the first 15 picks are pitchers as this draft is thought to be very pitching heavy.

Strasburg Update from 5/14 outing:
7IP, 6H, 2ER, 1BB, 10K. On the year now - 12-0 with a 1.34 ERA, 18BB/174K, and a .167 BAA in 94 1/3IP.

Other News:
Washington Post Article on Strasburg
D-Train looks solid in 2nd game this season

Gamel and Reimold Get the Call

Matt Gamel (Brewers) and Nolan Reimold (Baltimore) have been promoted to the majors. Both of these guys are off to blazing starts in AAA and should be considered in deep fantasy leagues. With interleague play coming up, the Brewers will probably use Gamel as the DH and see how he takes to MLB pitching. The Orioles have some injury concerns with Adam Jones and Luke Scott so Reimold will get plenty of ABs early and he could stick around if he performs well. The knock on Gamel is that he has bricks for hands at 3B but he can rake with the best of them. This sounds very similar to when the Brewers called another butcher of a 3B who could hit......Ryan Bruan. I think the success of Braun will create interest in Gamel. Below are the YTD stats for both players

Gamel- .336 with 8 HR, 31 RBI, 1.075 OPS and he is hitting .425 vs LHP.
Reimold- .394 with 9 HR, and has 6 SBs.

Random Rant of the Day:
It bothers me that the Giants intentionally walked Zimmerman in the 7th inning in the middle of a 30 game hit streak. I fully understand that the Giants are trying to win the game and Zimmerman is the best hitter in the line-up but there are unwritten rules like don't bunt late in the game if the other pitcher has a no-hitter and there are others. Zimmerman got another AB and his streak was snapped at 30 games, so now there is no reason to check Washington's boxscores.

Twitter:
I am a self proclaimed fantasy news whore and I have found a new channel to feed my obession and that is Twitter. Twitter was foregin to me until Mnday when I kept seeing it all over ESPN and decided to see what the hell it is. To my surprise you can get all kinds of instant info from this site. You sign on to "follow" certain people and you recieve their messages throughout the day. The article here, from Hardball Times, list some of the best baseball sites to follow. Here is the site that compiles all the sports figures that use Twittwer

Who am I Answer??
The winless prospect that I was refering to was Msx Scherzer. This really surprised me becuase I assumed that he got a W got he busted on the scene last season. Scherzer averages more pitches per batter then any other pitcher in the National League.

Other News:
Lackey and Erv are joining Angels rotation
Manny drops appeal
MLB.com clip with Strasburg
No Structural Damage for Soria

Later this week I am writing a detailed post about David Ortiz and his terrible start to the season. If you have suggestions or comments emial me at www.futurefirstrounder@gmail.com or leave a message in the comment field.

Down on the Farm as of 5/11/2009

Hitters:
Justin Smoak-.355 AVG, 5 HR, 24 BB, 18 K. Smoak is hitting .219 vs LHP and .410 vs RHP
Matt Wieters- .301 AVG, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 15 BB, 18 K and hitting .364 in last 10 games
Austin Jackson- .360 AVG, 0 HR, 13 RBI, and 7 SBs
Buster Posey-.299, 5 HR, 19 K, 14 BB and hitting .179 in last 10 games
Matt Gamel-.339 AVG, 8 HR, 31 RBI, 33 K, 19 BB and is hitting .425 vs LHP
Nolan Reimold-.381 AVG, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 5 SBs and is hitting .536 vs LHP
F. Martinez- .278 AVG, 3 HR, 24 K, 7 BB, and 0 SBs
Yonder Alonso-.279 AVG, 5 HR, 18 K, 12 BB
Jason Heyward-.261 AVG, 4 HR and 2 SB

Pitchers:
David Price-1-4 with a 4.74 ERA, 27.2 IP, 21 K, and 16 BB
Madison Bumgarner-3-1 with a 1.48 ERA, 24.1 IP, 23 K, and 10 BB
Tommy Hanson-1-3 with a 1.99 ERA, 40.1 IP, 57 K, and 13 BB
Daniel Bard- 1.13 ERA with 6 saves in 16 IP and 29 K
Carlos Carrasco-0-3 with a 5.46 ERA, 31.1 IP, 34 K, and 6 BB

The biggest surprise so far this season is the performance (or lack thereof) of David Price. Maybe Price is bored with the minor leagues after closing out game 7 against the Redsox to go to the World Series last season for the Rays. Price will be in the majors this season and I am by no means worried about him but he is showing cracks in his armour.

Who am I?
I am a highly touted prospect who is only 24 years old. I have started 13 games, pitched in relief as well, totaling 87.2 IP and 95 Ks. I have a WHIP of 1.278 and 9.8 k/9 rate. The most intresting fact is that I am winless for my career at 0-7. Who am I??

Other News
Jon Mayo on the upcoming Draft
YTD scouting report for Rick Porcello
Maybin sent down to AAA

Strasburg No-Hits Air Force

Strasburg No-Hit Air Force on Friday night in his final home start of his college career.
Final line: 9-0-0-0-2-17

On the season, he's now 11-0, 1.24 ERA, 87.1 IP, 48 H, 17 BB, 164 Ks. This kid is the most hyped prospect ever in the draft era. It is being reported that Boras is going to ask $50 million for the Nats to sign him which is 5 times Mark Prior's record in 2001. Scouts say he could be an immediate impact player in 2009 if the Nats are willing to use him after the June draft. I doubt they are going to mess around with that giving the amount of money they are going to invest in him. You can listen to Baseball America's draft podcast here.

Evidence that Baseball Scouting is like playing darts:
This is straight from Baseball America's scouting report for Grienke in 2002
"He commands all three pitches very well, and scouts like his poise and mental toughness"

Draft Term:
Unprotected Pick: An Unprotected pick is one that is a compensatory pick from the previous draft for not signing a player. For example the Nationals have 2 picks in the top 10 (first time this has happened in the draft era) because they didn't sign 2008 1st round pick Aaron Crow, so if they don't sign the player they take with the 2008 compensatory pick, they will not receive an extra pick in 2010. This is why you will see them take a very safe player who is willing to sign for slot or below slot money.

Other News:
Baseball America Weekly Prospect Hotsheet
Minor League Notebook weekly Podcast
Alderson and Bumgarner Promoted to AA
Redsox promote RP Bard
Soria Placed on 15 Day DL

Manny......Gone

I am sure everyone already has heard that Manny will miss the next 50 games for using PEDs. In my opinion, except for Manny himself, Either and Hudson are the biggest losers and Kemp will be the biggest winner from this suspension. Below is an excerpt from a previous post about the arrival of Manny and the impact on Either's performance.

Andre Ethier was having a pretty average year before Manny came on board as he hit .271 with 7 HR in the first half and then exploded after Manny protected him in the LAD line-up. Manny came over to LA on July 31 and lets examine his numbers on a monthly basis:

Pre Manny
April- Avg: .329 HR: 7 SLG: .482
May- Avg: .292 HR: 2 SLG: .416
June- Avg: .195 HR: 3 SLG: .390
July- Avg: .281HR: 4 SLG: .490

With Manny
August- Avg: .292 HR: 7 SLG: .615
September- Avg: .462 HR: 2 SLG: .692

To sum it up, after Manny arrived in LA Either hit .367 with 9 HRs with a SLG % of .643 and an impressive OPS of 1.08. Ethier is 26 and will be entering his prime hitting age in 2009 and I think a breakout season is in store for Either.

Kemp for some odd reason is batting 6th/7th and he will obviously move higher in the line-up which will give him more RBI opportunities. I would not be selling Eitherduring these 50 games especially in a keeper league but if he does slip up I would be actively trying to aquire him close to July when Manny returns.

Random Rant:
I can't stand the fact that everytime a closer gets shit-blasted in an outing they always say they are hurt. Matt Capps is the lastest closer who got shelled and then sprinted to a MRI machine. Capps will be fine for this upcoming weekend series but I compare these guys to young kids who screw up and act hurt to deflect the attention to the fact they were caught stealing to lose the damn game.

Examining Bullpens

Whenever a cloer loses his job or is on the brink of losing it owners go bananas on the Waiver Wire to grab the replacement (i.e. Huston Street went for $496 out of a $1000 annual budget in my NFBC league!). A lot of times the next guy isn't worth owning and will hurt your ERA and WHIP just you grab a few saves. I suggest that you get ahead of the curve and target pitchers with the best "skills" within the bullpen and not always the annointed back-up closer. The Florida Marlins are a prime example of this situation as most people think Nunez is the guy after Lindstrom but in reality Kiko Calero has been much more effective this season with a 2.08 ERA, 12.5 K/9, and a 4.5 K:BB ratio. As for Nunez he has a 2.84 ERA, 6.4 k/9 and a 1.5 K:BB ratio. when you just look at the 2.84 ERA, for Nunez, it can be misleading as only 21% of his balls hit in play are falling in for hits and when this number normalizes his ERA will be corrected. The Twins Bullpen has no issues with a closer but they have a young LHP fireballer who is worth a look in Jose Mijares. Mijares has only pitched 4.7 IP this season but has a 15.4 K/9 and a K:BB ratio of 8, 0.00 ERA and a .64 WHIP. The goal of this post is to get ahead of other owners so if something were to happen to Nathan the bidding on this guy would go crazy. He is also a type of pitcher that you can throw in your line-up and not be worried and about damaging any of your categories. The Oakland A's have two pitchers that should be on your radar for speculation and they are Andrew Bailey and Mike Wuertz. I have zero faith in Ziegler and I predict one of these guys start to grab saves from him very soon (Wuertz already has 2 saves). Wuertz has pitched 13.7 innings with 8.6 Ks per 9, a 1.98 ERA and a WHIP of .88. Bailey has thrown 17.7 IP has recored 3 Ws and has posted a 1.53 ERA and .74 WHIP. Wuertz has better control then Bailey but Bailey strikes more people out, so both guys could get a chance at saves this season.

Charlie Manual is concered about Myers:
"His fastball, it doesn't have the velocity it used to have, it doesn't have the movement," Manuel said. "He has to locate it. . . . He topped out around 87-88. . . . I'm concerned about it.

Other News:
Hamiliton at 85%
Joba's mom dealing Meth to Cops
Buster Olney think Crawford could get 100 Bags
Utley out with sore foot
Mike Lupica on Joba's outing
Rick Porcello impressive vs Twins
AROD goes 3-6 with 2 Bombs
Posada goes on the DL with Hamstring injury

Grienke's Meds are Working

Until last night, I have completely ignored the start by Zack Grienke because I don't own him in any league and I was praying he would go away. Donald Zachary Grienke RHP is 25 years old and was born in Orlando, Fl. He is listed at 6'2 185 lbs and was selected 6th overall by KC in the 2002 amateur draft Since Pundits are comparing him to Bob Gibson, I decided to watch his start last night and my conclusion is that this kid is for real. The hits that he did give up were broken bats and bloops singles and he was always ahead in the count which had the Sox completely guessing. The complete Pitch F/X data for his start last night can be seen here. Grienke is a fastball-slider pitcher and he has amazing command of both pitches and he mixes in a curve/change-up to make it interesting. His FB is clocked at 94-97 MPH and his slider is his out pitch. During his start last night he threw his slider for a strike 86.67% of the time. Grienke is extremely efficient with his pitches as the most pitches he threw in an inning last night was 14 and he had under 10 pitches twice. Looking over his splits the season you have to swing early in the count if you plan on reaching base: Opponents are hitting .368 with a 0-0 count, .077 with a 0-1 count, .071 with a 0-2 count, and .067 when he runs the count full. He has only gone to 3-1 five times this season and batters are hitting .400 off him. Grienke starting to show off his skills in the 2nd half of last season but nobody could have predicting this, except for the many voices that are roaming in his head.

2009 YTD:
Wins: 6
Losses: 0
IP: 45
K: 54
BB: 8
ERA: .40
WHIP: .84
BB/9: 1.6
K/9: 10.8

The combination of walking 1.6 per 9 and fanning 10.8 is a recipe for success. He can't keep this pace up but fantasy owners are sure enjoying that mid-round pick for now.

Related Grienke Articles:
Grienke shuts out Sox
Grienke is Magic
Grienke is helping all Royals

Other News:
Big Z hits the DL
Posada leaves game and will get MRI
How Sebieu Lions spent Dice-K posting fee