Sunday, July 12, 2009

Jay Bruce's Replacement

Jay Bruce has fractured his right wrist sliding for a ball in RF and will most likely miss the rest of the 2009 season. For owners in non-keeper leagues this may be good news as you now can justifying dropping the .200 BA from your team as you waited for his BAIP to correct itself. I am a huge Jay Bruce fan and I think he is going to be a fantasy stud but he needs to make more contact on a regular basis. Derek Lee owners know how serious a wrist injury could be so depending on how bad the fracture this injury could effect his 2010 season. Assuming the Reds fill the position in-house they have two good looking prospects currently in AAA Louisville in Chris Heisey and Drew Stubbs. They have been reports that Stubbs may get the first crack at replacing Bruce but Heisey is the better fantasy option. Below is a little bit about each player

Chris Heisey 6'0 200 lbs (24 Yrs Old)
Heisey, from Lancaster, Pa, was on nobody's radar prior to this season but he is having the best season of any Red's prospect. Heisy was rewarded by being named to the 2009 Futures Game that is being played today in St. Louis. Heisey has displayed a nice power speed combo and has demonstrated great plate discipline with a 42:37 K:BB ratio. 2009 stats are listed below:

AVG: .350
HR: 15
RBI: 53
K:BB: 42:37
SB: 15
OPS: 1.005

Drew Stubbs 6'4 205 lbs (24 Yrs. Old)
Stubbs lacks the power and plate discipline of Heisey but he is a terror on the base paths with 33 SBs already this season. If Stubbs gets the call this season he could be a nice speculative SB source going forward. His 2009 stats are listed below:

AVG: .283
HR: 2
RBI: 25
K:BB: 71:40
SB: 33
OPS: .745

As you can see Heisy's numbers are much better and at this point translates into a more valuable fantasy option. If your league has a Minor League system or a deep bench I would grab Heisy before he makes a splash in Cincy.

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Who is the Best Rookie Pitcher?

There are some highly touted prospects pitching this season and below I will breakdown the stats for the top 5 in my opinion:

Tommy Hanson (20 Yrs Old):
4-0 with a 2.85 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5.5 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9. I think Hanson has the brighest future of this group but his numbers so far this season are smoke and mirrors. Hanson has a very low H% (% of balls hit into play that go for a hit) at 24% while the league average is 30%. Hanson is benefiting from stranding runners on base as 83% of the baserunners are stranded with a league average between 70-75%. As his H% corrects itself more of those runners will come around to score and inflate his ERA. I would expect some bumps in the road short-term and long-term I see him as a fantasy ace.

Brett Anderson (21 Yrs. Old):
5-7 with a 4.86 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. Anderson has been over shadowed by fellow prospect Trevor Cahill but Anderson may be the better of the two for the long term. Unlike Hanson, Anderson has not been lucky as he has a 31 H% and only 69% of runners remain stranded. Anderson has been popping up on radar screens as of late becuase he has been striking out more batters in his last 2 outings with 7 vs. DET and 9 vs. Bos. On July 6th Anderson threw a CGSO in Fenway while only surrendering 2 hits. The Boston outing has increased his price but he will be a good speculative K source for the 2nd half of the season.

Rick Porcello (20 Yrs. Old):
8-6 with a 4.14 ERA, 1.46 WHIPm 4.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. Porcello has been struggling as of late which made the Tigers skip his final start going into the ASB but Porcello could have a solid 2nd half as they will look to get him extra rest to limit his innings. It is hard to expect anything from a 20 yr old pitcher in the majors but his k/9 is dissappointing. As Porcello went flying through the Det system, his K/9 was low and the organization was saying that they were limiting what pitches he could throw and that was the cause of the low K figures. After seeing him for the 1st half of this season I am having a hard time with his Josh Beckett comparison. He is only 20 and he will develop into a great fantasy pitcher but I don't think it will be this season

Rickey Romero (24 Yrs. Old):
7-3 with a 2.96 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Romero has performed the best of these 5 pitchers and he is my favorite to win the AL ROY. Romero was selected with the #6 pick in the 2005 draft by the Jays. The 2005 draft was loaded with #1 Justin Upton #2 Alex Gordon #4 Ryan Zimmerman #5 Ryan Braun #7 Tulowitzki #10 Maybin #11 Andrew McCutchen #12 Jay Bruce #23 Ellsbury #25 Garza and #28 Colby Rasmus. For 2009, I think Romero has the most fantasy value of this group but I just wish he pitched in a different division.

David Price (23 Yrs. Old)
3-3 with a 4.70 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 6.3 BB/9. I don't care how good you are or how many hittesr you K, if you walk 6.3 batters per 9 you are going to get crushed. Price performed great in last year's post season and that just added to the hype machine but it looks like Price needs a little more seasoning. I thought Price would be more polished at this point being he attended college for 3 years at Vandy while Porcello, Hanson, and Anderson went to the minors from high school. It is obvious that Price can miss bats and also the strike zone but when he gains command of the stike zone he will be an elite pitcher. If I were building a "real" team I would take Price over Hanson due to Price being left handed but from a fantasy perpective I would take Hanson.

I guess Jonathan Sanchez really wants to stay in the rotation as he threw a 11 K 0 BB no hitter last night against the helpless Padres. Sanchez was recalled from the minors to fill in for Randy Johnson who is on the DL. Even with this outing Sanchez has had a terrible year posting a 3-8 record with a 4.69 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 78.7 innings. There was some hype surrounding the 26 year old Sanchez coming into this year becuase he is young and strikes out a lot of batters but his numbers have never been good and in 2008, which was his first full season, he killed your ERA and WHIP by posting a 5.01 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 158 innings. You can expect the FAAB bidding to get crazy for Sanchez after this performance and I would reccomend you save you $ and your ratios and stay clear from him.

Other News:
Vald and Hunter could miss a month
Vasquez to miss start
Mets aquire Francoeur and Braves get Church
Jordan Schafer could miss rest of year
James McOwen's hit streak snapped at 45

Friday, July 10, 2009

BA Mid-Season Top 25

Baseball America has released its mid-season top 25 prospects list. The prospects who were called to the majors this season are not included. I was surprised to see Smoak at #4 and the #2 ranking for Stanton is a little aggressive in my eyes. Phillies fans will be please with #17 Brown, #23 Taylor and #24 Drabek and hopefully Brown and Drabek are property of the Jays in exchange for Halladay. Two of the top three pitchers are from the Baltimore organization and it is likely that we will see Tillman this season and Matusz in 2010. I have a hard time with them ranking Montero over Posey as Montero is going to eat himself into a 1B very soon. So far this season Posey is hitting .321 with 12 HRs, 52 RBIs and 6 SBs compared with Montero who is hitting .330 with 13 HRs, 52 RBIs and 0 SBs but Montero is playing in AA while Posey is in high A. They both are great hitters and Posey is better behind the dish and the fact that Montero may not be a C for the long term makes me like Posey more.

1. Jason Heyward, of, Braves
2. Mike Stanton, of, Marlins
3. Jesus Montero, c, Yankees
4. Justin Smoak, 1b, Rangers
5. Madison Bumgarner, lhp, Giants
6. Buster Posey, c, Giants
7. Carlos Santana, c, Indians
8. Chris Tillman, rhp, Orioles
9. Brian Matusz, lhp, Orioles
10. Logan Morrison, 1b, Marlins
11. Freddie Freeman, 1b, Braves
12. Jarrod Parker, rhp, Diamondbacks
13. Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers
14. Alcides Escobar, ss, Brewers
15. Yonder Alonso, 1b, Reds
16. Wade Davis, rhp, Rays
17. Dominic Brown, of, Phillies
18. Desmond Jennings, of, Rays
19. Jason Castro, c, Astros
20. Tim Beckham, ss, Rays
21. Brett Wallace, 3b, Cardinals
22. Matt LaPorta, 1b/of, Indians
23. Michael Taylor, of, Phillies
24. Kyle Drabek, rhp, Phillies
25. Michael Saunders, of, Mariners

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Smoak Promoted to AAA

The Rangers have promoted top prospect, Justin Smoak, to AAA and this makes it clear that he will see time in the majors this season. The Rangers have been using Blalock at 1B with Andrew Jones serving as the DH. Spo far this season Smoak is hitting .339 with 8 HRs and has shown great plate discpline with 40 BBs and only 36 Ks. Smoak is still having trouble hitting LHP with a .196 avg but he is hitting .379 against RHP. If the Rangers continue to remain in the race, Smoak may up very soon as he has nothing else to prove in the minors and has college experience. I highly recommend that you allocate some FAAB dollars for this kid when he comes up in all league formats.

With the injury to Uehara, the Orioles may be bringing up one of their top prospects in Chris Tillman. So far this season Tillman is 6-5 with a 2.69 ERA and has fanned 82 batters in 80.1 innings. The Orioles are loaded with young arms with Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz getting ready in the Minors.

During the All-Star Break, the 2009 Futures Game will be played in St. Louis. The Futures Game is meant to bring the best up and coming talent in the minors together in a USA vs. the World format. Per the rules of the Futures Game, each MLB team must have at least 1 player and the max per team is 2 prospects. I think that the 2 max is too restrictive as some teams have more the 2 "Future Stars" and some don't have any. The two biggest players that were left off the the US roster were Buster Posey and Justin Smoak. Posey was left off because the World Team needed a 1B and they selected Giants prospect Angel Villalona and Madison Bumgarner was a no-brainer for the US which gave the 2 prospects already in the game. Smoak has left off becuase he had an injured oblique when the teams were selected. The US pitching staff is loaded with Bumgarner, Drabek, Latos, Matusz, Parker and the above mentioned Chris Tillman. You can view the full rosters for the Futures Game here. You can listen to Minor League Notebook's podcast previewing the Futures Game here.

While listening to Bill Simmon's podcast with guest Keith Law, they mentioned that since Albert didn't hit in the Minors makes his listed age of 29 more believable. They has been speculation that Albert is 5 years older and that would have made him 25 when he spent his only season in the Minors. Phat Albert hit .314 with 19 HRs, 96 RBIs, .920 OPS and an impressive 46:47 BB:K ratio and he was only 20 years old in his only season in the Minor Leagues. I am not sure how those numbers are considered to be "not hitting". So far in 2009, Pujols is hitting .336 with 31 HRs, 82 RBIs, 64:34 BB:K ratio and an OPS of 1.208 in 81 games. Pujols is leading the league in Runs,HR, RBIs, BB, OBP, SLG, OPS, IBB and Total Bases. Pujols has 30 more BBs then Ks and has only 3 more Ks then HR. I don't care how old this Latin beast is and I plan to ride his un-documented ass to a NFBC title!

Other News:
Wang is injured again
Alex Gordon goes 1-3 in AAA rehab game

Friday, July 3, 2009

Albertin Chapman Defects from Cuba

While the Cuban National Team was playing the Netherlands, Chapman left his team and is on his way to Miami. Now that he has defected from Cuba he will be availble to the highest MLB bidder. In order for Chapman to avoid the draft and become a free agent, he must establish legal residency in a country outside of the U.S. or Cuba. Chapman will be the most sought after FA this off season with his fastball being clocked in the 100's, being 21 years old and that he throws from the left side. Below are articles about Chapman:

Fangraphs article about Chapman
Yahoo article on Chapman

Scott Boras is up to his usual antics as he is saying that Strasburg may play in Japan to achieve his mega payday in 2010 by avoiding the draft.

Video of Albertin Chapman from the WBC

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Posey to Skip AA and Alonso Breaks Hand

Buster Posey may not be teaming up Bumgarner and Alderson in AA becuase it is being reported that Posey is going to bypass AA and gostraight to AAA Fresno. So far this season Posey is .328 with 11 HR and an impressive 36:39 BB:K ratio whhile hitting .458 in last 10 games. It is now certain that Posey will be the starting catcher for SF in 2010 as Molina will be a type A free agent but SF may not want to risk offering him arbitration. Phillies fans can relate to this when they offered Arb to Polanco with Utley waiting in the wings and he accepted the offe. The giants have some real good looking young talent with Lincecum, Sanchez, Cain, Posey, Alderson and Bumgarner. With expectations that Posey will be starting next seaon I expect to see him the September when the rosters expand.

Quote from the Mucats Website:
"Yonder Alonso has been placed on the seven-day disabled list with a broken hamate bone in his right hand. Alonso suffered the injury taking a swing on a 3-0 fastball in the second game of yesterday's doubleheader against Tennessee. Alonso will be further assessed in the coming few days to determine the course of action for healing and rehabilitation. There has been no timetable set for Alonso's return as of yet. Alonso was the Reds' first round pick (#8 overall) in last year's draft, and entered the season as Cincinnati's top-ranked prospect by Baseball America. Alonso left the Florida State League leading the circuit in RBI while hitting .302 with seven home runs. In Alonso's time with the Mudcats, he was hitting .246 with one homer and eight RBI, although his numbers didn't adequately reflect how well he was hitting the ball."

The Cincy paper is saying that Alonso is out for 6 weeks

Smoak Returns with a Bang
Justin Smoak returned to action on June 21st and went 3-3 with 2 HRs. His rehab assignment was in the Arizona Rookie League but he has since returned to AA. So far this season Smoak is hitting .344/.460/.563 with a 33:32 BB:K ratio. When you combine the blistering start from Smoak with the embarrasing antics of Chris Davis who is hitting .196 with 102 Ks in 225 ABs you get yourself a new 1B in Arlington. The only people who want Davis to stay in the Majors is Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Byrce Harper to Enroll in JUCO this August

Just a couple weeks after being pimped on the cover of SI, Harper has elected to skip his final 2 season of High School and gain his GED to enroll in Junor College this August. This moves makes him available for the 2010 MLB draft and that means that the Nationals are going to have another fight with Boras this time next year. Keith Law was quoted saying that if Harper was in this year's draft, he would have gone #2 over Ackley. I have no idea how you can project a 16 year old to the majors but scouts have gone straight bananas over this kid. I will keep you updated on everything Bryce Harper going forward.

Brian Matusz Dominates Reading Phillies

Matusz was selected by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the fourth round (133rd overall) of the 2005 amateur entry Draft but he declined the offer and decided to play college ball art San Diego. The Baltimore Orioles selected him in the first round (fourth overall) of the 2008 amateur Draft. Matusz made his AA debut against a very good hitting Reading Phillies team and he limited them to 3 hits over 6 innings with 1 BB and 10 Ks. This performance has lowered his ERA below 2.00 (1.98) and he has recorded 85 Ks in 72.2 IP this season.

Hanson Improves to 2-0

Hanson's record is much better this his numbers suggest. So far this season Hanson was thrown 17.2 innimgs with a 12:10 K:BB ratio a 4.08 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. In his last 2 outing, which he has won both, he has walked 9 batters and only struck out 7. Hanson will settle down very soon and should be an above average pitcher for the rest of this season and an elite pitcher going forward.



Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Sean Rodriguez Gets the Call

Sean Rodriguez (2B) has been recalled from AAA Salt Lake to take the place of Howie Kendrick who was demoted. Rodriguez was drafted in the 3rd round in the 2003 draft by the Angels out of high school in Miami. So far this season Rodriguez is tearing up the hitter friendly PCL by hititng .273 with 21 HRs, 60 RBIs, 68:20 K:BB ratio and has added 6 SBs to go along with his power. In 2008, Rodriguez had a solid year hitting .306 with 21 HR, 52 RBIs and posted a monster 1.042 OPS. I love Rodriguez's skills and I highly reccomend that you own him if you have a deep bench or a Minor League Sysyem, but why in the hell isn't Brandon Wood playing 3B and Figgins at 2B? I am positive that Brandon Wood got caught sleeping with the Skipper's wife and that is why they refuse to play him. In 2008, Wood had 31 HRs and this season he is hitting .302 with 15 HRs, 40 RBIs, 39 Ks and has an OPS of .991. In typical Mike Scioscia form, Maicer Izturis has been getting PT at 2B showing that Scioscia is loyal to a fault to his veteran players.

Around the Minors:
Madison Bumgarner- 7-2, 2.01 ERA, 55 Ks in 58.1 IP
Buster Posey- .324 with 10 HRs, 37 Ks, 34 BB and 5 SBs
Austin Jackson- .348 with 1 HR, 27 RBIs and 12 SBs
Josh Vitters- .320 with 13 HRs, 39 RBIs and 3 SBs
Cameron Maybin- .284 with 1 HR, 17 Ks and 3 SBs
Matt LaPorta- .317 with 8 HR, 25 RBIs and a .938 OPS
Neftali Feliz- 3-4 with a 3.83 ERA and 45Ks in 49.1 IP
Brian Matusz- 4-2 wit ha 2.16 ERA and 75 Ks in only 66.2 IP

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Player Spotlight: Edwin Jackson

Edwin Jackson is taking the American League by storm and he has caught most fans and fantasy owners by surprise. Jackson is 25 years old stands 6'3, he tips the scale at 190 LBs and throws from the right side. Jackson was born in 1983 in West Germany. He was originally drafted by the Dodgers in the 6th rd in the 2001 draft. The Dodgers traded him to TB in 2006 for Danny Baez and Lance Carter, then the Rays traded him to Detroit in 2008 for Matt Joyce. Jackson has never had great numbers and I wouldn't expect this current pace to hold up.

2007
IP- 161
W- 5
L- 15
ERA- 5.76
WHIP- 1.76
K/9- 7.2

2008
IP- 183.3
W- 14
L- 11
ERA- 4.42
WHIP- 1.51
K/9- 5.3

So far this season Jackson is 6-3 in 83.3 innings 62 Ks with an impressive 2.16 ERA. He has been throwing 97 MPH in the 9th inning as he is striking out 6.7 batters per 9. Control has been a major issue for Jackson the past couple of seasons and I believe that has been the biggest factor in his turn around as Jackson is only issuing 2.1 free passes per 9. The one concerning stat for Jackson is that only 25% of balls hit into play are falling for hits and that is proving that he is getting lucky so far. The past 2 season his H% was at 30% and 35% so expect that ERA and WHIP to rise as his H% normalizes.

Who the hell is Barbaro Canizares and why is he hitting clean-up?
The Braves promoted the 29 year old Canizares to play 1st base and tonight he was hitting clean-up. He is slow, can't field his position and doesn't hit for power so the Braves put him at a power position and bat him clean up! The Braves offense is so bad and as a Vasquez owner I would rather have the Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro playing 1B for this pathetic squad.

Drew Storen could be Nats closer by Year End
The #10 pick in the this years draft, Drew Storen, has already signed, $1.6 million, and been assigned to A ball. Storen emerged as a premier closer in his freshman campaign with eight saves. He was drafted by the Yankees in the 34th round in 2007, but he did not sign. In 28 appearances in 2009, Storen was 7-1 with seven saves. In 42 2/3 innings, Storen permitted 18 earned runs on 34 hits with eight walks and 66 strikeouts. If your league has a deep bench I would aquire him for possible September save opportunities.

Other News:
1 More Rehab Start for Smoltz
Snider struggling in AAA
Jake Arrieta tearing up AA

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

2009 Draft Recap

FIRST ROUND
1. Washington Nationals -- Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State
2. Seattle Mariners -- Dustin Ackley, OF, Univ. of North Carolina
3. San Diego Padres -- Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville (Ga.) HS
4. Pittsburgh Pirates -- Tony Sanchez, C, Boston College
5. Baltimore Orioles -- Matt Hobgood, RHP, Norco (Calif.) HS
6. San Francisco Giants -- Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS, Dallas, Ga.
7. Atlanta Braves -- Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt
8. Cincinnati Reds -- Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State
9. Detroit Tigers -- Jacob Turner, RHP, Westminster Christian Academy, St. Louis, Mo.
10. Washington Nationals -- Drew Storen, RHP, Stanford
11. Colorado Rockies -- Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, Calif.
12. Kansas City Royals -- Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth Cats
13. Oakland Athletics -- Grant Green, SS, University of Southern California
14. Texas Rangers -- Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS, Spring, Texas
15. Cleveland Indians -- Alex White, RHP, Univ. of North Carolina
16. Arizona Diamondbacks -- Bobby Borchering, 3B, Bishop Verot School, Fort Myers, Fla.
17. Arizona Diamondbacks -- A.J. Pollock, CF, Notre Dame
18. Florida Marlins -- Chad James, LHP, Yukon (Okla.) HS
19. St. Louis Cardinals -- Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood (Texas) HS
20. Toronto Blue Jays -- Chad Jenkins, RHP, Kennesaw State University
21. Houston Astros -- Jiovanni Mier, SS, Bonita HS, La Verne, Calif.
22. Minnesota Twins -- Kyle Gibson, RHP, Univ. of Missouri
23. Chicago White Sox -- Jared Mitchell, OF, LSU
24. Los Angeles Angels -- Randal Grichuk, LF, Lamar Consolidated HS, Rosenberg, Texas
25. Los Angeles Angels -- Mike Trout, CF, Millville (N.J.) HS
26. Milwaukee Brewers -- Eric Arnett, RHP, Indiana Univ.
27. Seattle Mariners -- Nick Franklin, SS, Lake Brantley HS, Altamonte Springs, Fla.
28. Boston Red Sox -- Reymond Fuentes, CF, Fernando Callejo HS, Manati, P.R.
29. New York Yankees -- Slade Heathcott, CF, Texas HS, Texarkana, Texas
30. Tampa Bay Rays -- Levon Washington, OF, Buchholz HS, Gainesville, Fla.
31. Chicago Cubs -- Brett Jackson, OF, Univ. of California
32. Colorado Rockies -- Tim Wheeler, OF, Sacramento State

-The draft is so hard to predict and in many cases it will take years to fully understand the value of this year's draft. Tyler Matzek, LHP, he was regarded as the best LHP in the draft and the Braves went with the safe pick in Mike Minor LHP out of Vanderbilt with the 7th pick. The most interesting aspect of the draft is going to the the negotiations between Strasburg/Boras and the Nationals. Baseball Amercia has a full scouting report of all the 1st rd players here.

Hanson and Wieters..... Welcome to the Show!
The hype machine was working overtime with Hanson, Wieters and Price all in the majors, but Hanson and Wieters found this game isn't as easy as they were making in seem in AAA. Wieters is hitting .143 (4/28) with 0 HR or RBIs while sporting a .422 OPS. The Orioles are going to give him a long leash so there is no reason to grab Zaun at this time. Tommy Hanson made his MLB debut on Sunday going 6 IP giving up 6 hits, 6 ERs, 5 Ks, 1 BB and taking the loss against MIL. Ryan Braun took him deep twice which happens to the best of veteran pitchers. Hanson has a tough road ahead with BALT on Friday, CIN next Thursday, NYY the following Tuesday and Boston on that Sunday so we will see what he is made of very shortly

Use FAAB to Aquire Carlos Gonzalez
The Colorado Rockies have recalled top prospect, Carlos Gonzalez and manager Jim Tracy stated he didn't call him up to sit the bench. This move may signal the end for Brad Hawpe but use some FAAB $ if he is available in your league. So far this season in AAA, Gonzalez was hitting .339 with 10 HR, 59 RBI and 6 SBs in 192 ABs. In 2007. Gonzalez was the traded from ARI to OAK in the Haren Deal and then in 2008 he was dealt to Col in the Holliday deal.

Other News:
Brad Lidge to the DL
White Sox call up Poreda from AA
Jesse Litch need Tommy John
Jordan Zimmerman scratched from start
Hamiliton to miss 4-6 weeks

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Bryce Harper: The Chosen One?

Sports Illustrated has 16 year old phenom Bryce Harper on this week's cover. Tom Verducci wrote the cover story and it is really amazing what this kid can do i.e 570 ft HR to go along with a 96 MPH fastball. I think it is crazy that his parents are going to have him graduate early and enroll in a JC which would make him available for the 2010 draft instead of 2011. Harper is be advised by Boras and you can bet if anyone could find a loophole it would be him. MLB scouts state that if he was draft eligible this year, he would go #2 behind Strasburg. Sports Illustrated has been known to throw around the term "The Chosen One" loosely but from all accounts he is the real deal. Imagine if Harper is available in 2010, the Nationals could have Strasburg throwing to an 18 year old catcher in front of the 598 fans they have.

Smoak is Struggling Against Lefties:
CBS Sportsline is reporting that the Rangers are thinking about promoting Smoak sometime this season to replace free swinging Chris Davis. Smoak is killing RHP hitting .370 in 108 ABs but LHP are holding him to a .209 clip. Smoak is only hitting .256 in his last 10 games and it is being reported that he is battling some injuries as of late.

Austin Jackson:
NY Yankees top prospect, Austin Jackson, is quietly having a great season for AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. Jackson is hitting .348 with 1 HR, 26 RBIs and he is 11-11 in SBs. He has been abusing RHP and LHP equally as he is hitting .364 vs RHP and .343 vs RHP. Jackson profiles as a plus defender with excellent speed that will be the lead off hitter for a MLB club in the very near future.

Other News:
- Tommy Hanson's MLB debut has been pushed to Sunday
- Andrew McCutchen went 2-4 with 3 runs, 1 RBI, BB and a SB in his debut.
- The 2009 MLB Draft starts on Tuesday and will air on the MLB network
- The Sox have promoted top Prospect Gordon Beckman

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Breaking Down the McLouth Deal

The Pirates traded CF Nate McLouth to the Braves for 3 Minor League prospects. The best part of this deal for the Braves is that Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward or Kris Medlen are not part of this deal. The 3 prospects are Gorkys Hernandez, Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke.

YTD Stats:
Hernandez (AAA)- Hitting .316 with 0 HR and 19 RBIs
Charlie Morton (AAA)- 7-2 with a 2.51 ERA with 55 Ks in 64.2 IP
Jeff Locke (A)- 1-4 with a 5.52 ERA with 43 Ks in 45.2 IP

I was sure that the Braves were displaying Chris Medlen for trade bait and that was why they didn't recall Hanson at first but they just robbed the Pirates blind and they still may move Medlen later.

Other roster moves around this deal include the Braves releasing Tom Glavine and recalling top prospect Tommy Hanson to start on Saturday. The void in CF for the Pirates will most likely be filled by Top Prospect Andrew McCutcheon who had a great spring the the Pirates before being sent to AAA.

When I first heard of the deal I assumed that the Pirates were dumping salary but after looking at McLouth's contract that isn't the case:
2009: 2M
2010: 4.5M
2011: 6.5M
2012: 10.65M (Club option year with a 1.2M buyout)

If I were a Pirates season ticket holder, I would visit that big yellow bridge that leads to the stadium and jump off.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Time to trade Haren?

When you are looking for a player to sell high, look no further then Dan Haren. So far this season Haren is 4-4 with a 2.54 ERA, .90 WHIP and 71 Ks in 71 IP. From 2006-2008 Haren's production has dropped off each year post All-Star.

2006
1st Half ERA: 3.52
2nd Half ERA: 4.91

2007
1st Half ERA: 2.30
2nd Half ERA: 4.15

2008
1st Half ERA: 2.72
2nd Half ERA: 4.18

I would have a real hard time trading Haren away, but the numbers show that he is due to be less productive from the ASB on. You can find plenty of 4+ ERA guys on the waiver wire and Haren could land you a major player for your team.

Jordan Schafer sent Packing:
After hitting a HR in his first AB, it has been pretty slow going for the young lad. YTD Schafer is hitting .204 with 2 HR, 8 RBIs, and 2 SBs. The scaring thing about his average is it still had room to drop as he had a friendly .311 BABIP (Average is .300). He needs more time in AAA to tune his hitting skills.

Other News
Hamilton to DL
Volquez to DL
Soria Returns from DL
Does Beltran has Swine??

Sunday, May 31, 2009

Wieters, Martinez and Price Impressive

David Price recorded his first regular season win last night going 5.2 IP giving up 1 ER and striking out 11 Twins. For the season Price has 9 IP and 17 Ks but he also has 7 BBs. Wieters got his 1st MLB hit last night going 2-4 with a 2B and a 3B both off Verlander. Fernando Martinez also recorded his first MLB hit yesterday going 2-5 with a 2B and a RBI.

Baseball America on Kyle Skipworth:
"Kyle Skipworth, C, Marlins: Scouts who have seen Skipworth play in the minor leagues have come away scratching their heads over a player they liked as an amateur. The sixth overall pick last year out of a California high school, Skipworth has had trouble making contact with even marginal pitches as a pro. Scouts who saw Skipworth, 19, hit .208/.263/.340 with 46 strikeouts in 176 plate appearances in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League were confused, and those concerns are only getting greater with Skipworth struggling to a .167/.221/.292 start with 38 strikeouts in 105 plate appearances for low Class A Greensboro. Even as Greensboro tagged Lake County righthander Alex Perez for eight runs (including four homers) in three innings, Skipworth struck out swinging in both of his at-bats against Perez, whiffing at five of the six pitches he swung at."

Texas Baseball Coach Trying to Kill Senior Pitcher
Yesterday Texas and Boston College played the longest game in NCAA history, 25 innings, and Texas pitcher, Austin Wood, threw 169 pitches over 13 innings. Per Keith Law, this kid is going to get drafted and I understand the "win at all cost" mentality but this is crazy. Source: Keith Law

-In case you missed the majestic Grand Slam Ryan Howard hit last night please do yourself a favor and watch this clip.

Other News:
Vote for Manny Website
Sizemore may go on DL
VMART leaves game after fouling ball off leg
Wieters vs Mauer
Quentin to the DL with bad foot

Saturday, May 30, 2009

2009 Disappointments

The season is just over 25% complete and it is about time to start worrying about some slumping stars. When the phrase slumping stars is stated the first name that popped into your head.......David Ortiz. David's collapse is a perfect storm of age (he is probably older then he says), Drug Testing and the loss of Manny. So when you combine all these factors you get the shit sandwich called "Big Papi". I find it funny that nobody wants to accuse Papi of steroids but look at his HR totals the past 3 seasons: 2006-54, 2007-35, 2008-23. He is one of the nice guys in the league so people are hesitant to state the obvious that he either A) sucks really bad or B) was a cheater like tons of other players. The reason why I point out Papi is that he went on a crusade against steroids this off season and now he is embarrassing himself with every AB. Ortiz is not the only player that stinking up the joint and below is a short list of struggling players:

Davis Ortiz: .189 AVG with 1 HR, 18 RBIs and Juan Pierre like OPS of .576
Josh Hamilton: .235 AVG with 6 HR, 22 RBIs and a weak .751 OPS
Jimmy Rollins: .227 AVG with 3 HR, 17 RBIs and 8 SB
Grady Sizemore: .223 AVG with 8 HR, 30 RBIs and 7 SB
Nate McLouth: .250 AVG with 8 HR, 31 RBIs, and 7 SB
Jose Lopez: .218 AVG with 4 HR, 22 RBIs and a .583 OPS
Stephen Drew: .210 AVG with 2 HR, 15 RBIs and 0 SB
Troy Tulowitzki: .224 AVG with 5 HR, 15 RBIs and 4 SB

Francisco Liriano: 2-6 with 47 Ks in 54.7 IP and a 6.42 ERA
Scott Baker: 2-6 with 39 Ks in 52.7 IP and a 6.32 ERA
Scott Kazmir: 4-4 with 35 Ks in 45.7 IP and a 7.69 ERA
Brad Lidge: 0-2 with 10 Saves in 14 opportunities with a 8.44 ERA
Rickey Nolasco: 2-5 with 37 Ks in 43.7 IP and a 9.07 ERA

In February, I posted that it makes no sense to draft Sizmore with an ADP of #6 when you can get McLouth at #59. They both are struggling right now McLouth is still getting the better of Sizemore in 4 of 5 major categories and I predict he will finish the season as a more valuable fantasy option.

Virigina beats Strasburg
Last night, Strasburg took his first loss of the season going 7 IP, 2 ER and striking out 15. Virigina also beat the #2 college pitcher Alex White from NC, 11-1 in the SEC tourney. Strasburg better get used to giving up 2 ER and losing as the Nats are real good at not scoring.

Justin Smoak Come On Down!
Yesterday Chris Davis (TEX) went 0-7 with 6 Ks in a double header. Davis does have 12 HRs but he is hitting only .194 with 77 Ks in 165 ABs. Contact is a real issue for Davis as he is only hitting the ball 53% of the time and compare that to Pujols who makes contact 90% of the time. I am by no means comparing the two players but I wanted to demonstrate the drastic difference from an elite hitter to a .194 Hitter. To makes matters worse for Davis is Justin Smoak is ripping the ball in AA hitting .325 with 6 HR and he has 32 BB and only 30 Ks. Smoak is struggling against LHP hitting .209 but he is straight abusing RHP hitting .370. When you mix the 195 degree temps in August and this kid's power.......watch out.

Wieters goes Hitless:
Just about every male under the age of 78 in Baltimore was in Camden Yards to witness Wieters go 0-4 last night. I only watched his first AB where he had a pitch up in the zone to hit and he hit it hard to RF. Wieters is going to be a monster real soon but expect some bumps along the way.

- Alcides Escobar (Mil SS) is now taking GBs at 2B and could be the replacement for Weeks in the short-term. I think this would be a mistake because Weeks looked real good before the injury and he is the long-term solution for the Brewers at 2B. So when you move Escobar to 2B this season you are setting his development back a year at SS and he a no where near ready to hit MLB pitching.

- Eric Young, Jr. (2B Col)- If you are speculating for SBs and have a deep bench, I would pick up Eric Young, Jr who may get called up sometime this season for Colorado. Young has 27 SBs already this season and scouts believe he is the best pure base stealer in the Minors.

-Beerleaguer.com examines the internal options for the Phillies to replace Myers

Friday, May 29, 2009

Wieters and FMart are Here

Tonight is the night Baltimore fans have been waiting for since they passed on Tim Lincecum for Billy Rowell in the draft. Matt Wieters is making his MLB debut tonight vs. Willis and he has lofty expectations as some are comparing his offense to Piazza and his defense to Pudge. Anyone who follows prospects has to be excited to finally see this kid play against the top competition. Wieters went on a tear in his final 10 AAA games hitting .368, including a 4-4 night in his last AAA game, pulling his overall average to .308.

The Mets have called up top prospect Fernando Martinez to replace Church, who is on the DL, in RF. I think that this move is temporary until they get healthy but if he hits Church could lose his spot or at least some ABs.

With the movement of Wieters and Price, the demotion of Matt LaPorta and Travis Snider slipped many radar screens. Both were struggling as LaPorta was hitting .190 with 1 HR, 4 RBI and a .547 OPS while Snider was hitting .242 with 3 HR, 12 RBI and a .686 OPS. I was very surprised to see the Jays demote Snider because he is a major head case and this may rattle him a bit.

Other News:
Brett Myers may be out for the year
MLB.com predicting top 20 picks in June Draft
Posada to return on Friday

Monday, May 25, 2009

Either Really Missing Manny

When Manny went down I wrote that Either would struggle and Kemp would benefit and that is exactly what is happening (full disclosure I also thought Hudson would struugle and he has done just fine). Either exploded when the Dodgers landed Manny last season and now he just isn't getting the same pitches without him in the line-up. Since May 7, when Manny was busted popping fertility drugs, Either is 8-56 for a .142 AVG, 0 HR, and 3 RBIs. Kemp is hitting .313 sine May 7th but his still isn't hitting for power.

Fernando Martinez May Be On His Way
"Ryan Church is set to have an MRI on Monday to find out if he has a strain in the right hamstring. He could be headed to the DL either way. A source toldthe NY Daily News. that almost certainly would result in Martinez’s promotion since regular playing time would be available."

YTD Martinez is hitting .291 with 8 HR and a 31:11 K:BB ratio.

David Price Evaluation:
IP: 3.1
K: 6
BB: 5
H: 4
ER: 2
PC: 100 (57 for Strikes)

It was good to see the Rays stretch him out with 100 pitches but this was a start where he couldn't get out of his own way. 100 pitches in only 3.1 IP is very inefficient as I didn't see his start but from his line he seemed very wild. I wouldn't hit the panic button just yet and in a non-keeper league I wouldn't be buying either.

According to the St Petersburg Times, "LHP David Price's promotion won't be official today as the Rays shuffle their planned roster moves following Akinori Iwamura's injury. But when he takes the mound tonight in Cleveland, the Rays expect it to be the start of something long-lasting and special. "When you develop a player like David Price, you always try to pick your spots so that when he arrives, he stays," manager Joe Maddon said. Price will get the chance, as he takes Scott Kazmir's spot in the rotation unbridled by the 75-pitch limits and cautious handling the Rays had him under in the minor leagues. Maddon said Price, 23, will be treated like the other starters, with an adjustable limit of 90-100 pitches. "It's kind of like taking a race horse out there and always holding him back a bit," Maddon said. "Now we're going to kind of let him go." Price was a postseason sensation in relief, but the Rays didn't think he was ready for starting duty at the beginning of the season. They sent him to Triple-A Durham and he went 1-4, 3.93 in eight restricted starts, and got better as he went, working five no-hit innings with nine strikeouts in his last outing."

Other News:
Lidge's job is safe for now
Iwamura out for the season
Hafner has set-back
Soria ready for assignment

Future First Rounders as been added as a link to www.27pitches.com so check it out.

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Ordonez's Contract Clause

The rumblings that the Tigers may cut Magglio is due to the contract vesting clauses, listed below, in Magglio's contract with the Tigers:

2010 option guaranteed at $18M if Ordonez has:
135 starts or 540 PAs in 2009, or
270 starts or 1,080 PAs in 2008-09

2011 option guaranteed at $15M if Ordonez has:
135 starts or 540 PAs in 2010, or
270 starts or 1,080 PAs in 2009-10

Crawford Running Wild:
The fear that Carl Crawford will not run as much as 2006-2007 is officially over. Crawford is 25 for 25 in 2009 and that matches is SB total for all of 2008. These SBs are needed as the power just isn't there from Crawford. After his 2006 season when he had 18 HRs and 58 SBs, he vaulted into the 1st round in many fantasy leagues in 2007. He only hit 11 HR in 2007, 8 HR in 2008 and he currently has 1 HR in 173 ABs this season.

Friday, May 22, 2009

David Price Replacing Kazmir

The Tampa Tribune is reporting that David Price will start on Monday in place of Scott Kazmir, who has been placed on the 15 day DL with a quad strain.

As it has been noted Price has really struggled so far this season but I really think he will right his ship in the majors.
W:1
L:4
ERA: 3.93
IP: 34.1
BB: 18
K: 35

-Last year in the regular season Price pitched 14 IP with a 1.93 ERA striking out 7.7 per 9 and he was straight nasty in the playoffs.

-Lou Piniella is thinking about moving Soriano back to 2nd base to make room for Micah Hoffpauir

-Gerardo Parra, ARI CF, is hitting a .344 this season since being promoted and he is a great power/speed combo that will get a bunch of ABs this season. If he is still available in your league I would spend the FAAB to get him. In the minors this season he was hitting .361, 3 HR with 22 BBs and only 13 Ks. He is killing RHP hitting .390 and had 7 SBs before making the big leagues.

Draft Facts:
With the talk of Boras asking $50 Million to sign Strasburg, if you are wondering why they don't trade the pick away to the Yankees or the Redsox the reason is you are not allowed to trade picks in the MLB draft. Actually a player must remain with the team that signs them for 1 year to prevent teams from drafting a player and unloading them to the big money teams. In the Peavy deal, there were talks of Gordon Beckman going to SD, but he would need to be the player-to-be-named-later in the deal until he reaches the 1 mark with Chicago.

Other News:
Strasburg left game with cramps
Harden back home on the DL
Peter Gammons talks UNC baseball
Buster Posey vs. Santana
14 Minor League Pitchers who have 30% K-Rates
Spotlight on Desmond Jennings
Peavy says no to the Windy City
LIMA Plan examined